JoyofJamie's Stock Market 💡's 11|27|2022
- Jamie English
- Nov 27, 2022
- 2 min read
Happy Sunday everyone! I hope that you all had an amazing holiday week spent with loved ones. I definitely did and took a healthy break away from charts to enjoy the holiday and my birthday. Small recap of last week, I caught an amazing trade for FOMC that was the only trade I really considered ideal. Green week, but the consistent chop just provides the worst trading environment. Especially when I'm trading futures as I aim for absolute perfect future trade entries, and I keep a tight stop. Let's get to the charts friends.
The reason we are all here is obviously the market so let's hop right into that. I am going to try something a little different this week and include multiple timeframes of what I'm seeing to hopefully add context. I know many times I talk without adding visuals and I'm trying to be better. As always, any feedback you have over the blog and how I present or ways that could help from a reader's perspective is greatly appreciated.
/ES|
For /ES this week our first grab will have my /ES levels and I did go a little heftier on them this week because I will be trading a lot this week.
While we are in an uptrend on the daily in the moment, we have a very significant trend line in our horizon. For our zoomed out daily chart I have the 21 EMA pulled up and as you see the most significant last 3 times that we got above the 21 EMA with some distance this trendline is what sent us back down.
On the weekly chart we are seeing the same thing, but in my opinion the weekly chart is possibly showing us and incomplete H&S formation. For volume I'm really not focusing too much on it from last week as it was a holiday week and I expected it to be lower. Could we break this trendline? Absolutely. However, history shows us what happens at this trendline very clearly and my best setup looking at this week is a rejection of this trendline. For this reason, you will see that my levels are more concentrated than normal around the $4100 area where this trendline is in range.
/NQ|
For /NQ we're again going to start with the levels that I plan to trade and then we will be taking a look at the larger timeframes to see if there is any confluence with the /ES chart. I'm still not quite ready for /NQ to be my main trading vehicle again, but I did dabble with her after hours last week and I will do the same this week.
For the /NQ weekly trend line charted it's looking very similar to /ES but I'd like to make note of the main differences I am seeing. 1| being that /NQ has in fact breached this trendline before while /ES has not. 2| is that while I do see bull flags in our weekly charts it is notable to me that /NQ's last weekly candle is much more insignificant than the /ES chart. Not even attempting to reach the highs of the week before as /ES had done.
For the daily I really don't see anything that is screaming to me there's much of a difference from /ES. /NQ is also showing me that we could be seeing a head & shoulder formation that isn't completed. For this reason, with both tickers I will be on high alert as we near this trend. Like I said for /ES the possibility is there for a break, but I prefer the more likely scenario and a reject is that for me. If we do break the trendline I would wait for a retest from the upside to play the long in that area.
VIX|
As y'all can see the VIX keeps moving lower on my list because for I don't know how many weeks at this point, she's getting on my nerves. Last week when algos were doing most of the trading she was back on point and that is a good sign for me.
I'm going to start off with something I typically don't share if I chart it on the VIX.. Daily trendline. Now we are looking at the bottom as the VIX is inverse and a bottom trend should match the top trend on the market. Do y'all see what I see? It does not match as we are resting on this trendline now with no space while there is space on the futures. Now what does this mean to me? Not much actually, but it is an interesting disconnect in my opinion.
For levels on the VIX this week I will not being paying too much mind to them however I will keep my eyes on these gaps.
That is about all I'm watching or happened to take note of while charting as far as the futures go.
For the options friends I obviously am not who you should take note of because $HD was quite literally the worst call that I've ever made for that reason alone I will only be analyzing $TSLA this week because I love the look of the chart.
$TSLA 🚗|
As far as TSLA is concerned last week I am super happy with where my analysis was and TSLAs response. However, in true TSLA fashion I did not get my entry it happened overnight. This week the daily trend is lining up super nicely with the rection level that I had last week. I may day trade this however in the next chart I'll show you why I am much more hesitant.
As you can see on the 4-hour chart $TSLA seems to possibly be forming an inverse head & shoulders pattern which in my opinion could lead to a trend break for her. I would be more inclined this week to take calls off this boxed range and heavily trim at the trendline while leaving a runner for possible trend break.
Now to extend my hesitancy for shorts on $TSLA this week it very clearly closed last week in an inverted hammer, which is a reversal candle.
That's about all I have for this week. Keep in mind we have multiple possible news catalysts this week with GDP, consumer confidence and jobless claims. As always, I hope y'all are ready to make some fucking money friends! ✌️🌻
Where we going?!
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